One of the graphs that I find informative is this one from the Second Quarter 2010 Corcoran Report on the Manhattan Real Estate Market. Downtown Manhattan, comprised of neighborhoods below 34th Street, accumulated the largest percentage of sales this quarter with 35%, a small increase in market share from First Quarter 2010. The West Side accounted for 21% of sales while the East Side accrued 24%. One-bedroom residences accounted for the highest percentage of sales during Second Quarter 2010, with 35%. If you've been holding out from selling, you might want to take another look right now. Mortgages hit 50 year lows recently, so conditions haven't been this good to trade in a while.

Downtown Manhattan is the market that's moving first. From the report: "Resale coops increased 7% in median price as average price per square foot increased 5% versus Second Quarter 2009. One and three bedroom co-ops increased by 11% and 18%, respectively, from a year ago. Versus First Quarter 2010, condo median price increased 11% while average price per square foot increased by 4%." Download a copy of the complete second quarter report for the city's complete picture. Feel free to write me with your questions.

download the Q2 report (3.5 mb) »

As the Fourth of July approaches we have a post from guest writer Brandon Fischer of the VA Mortgage Center and AllMilitary.com, on a subject not covered before on this blog. I thought it was an appropriate theme as we celebrate the day our country was founded, and consider the priceless quality our freedom.

As we honor those who have sacrificed in service to our country this July 4, here’s a sobering statistic to consider: Veterans account for nearly a quarter of the country’s homeless population.

The federal government took a big step forward last month to help those who served get back on their feet. About 8,000 homeless vets will receive permanent housing assistance from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Department of Veterans Affairs, agency officials announced last month. Public housing agencies across the country will receive almost $60 million in rental assistance to help get veterans off the streets.

Homeless veterans can take advantage of the funding through HUD’s rental assistance program, which partners with Veterans Affairs Medical Centers to get vets into local public housing units. The agencies plan to introduce even more funding for housing vouchers as the summer continues. “Though they served and sacrificed so much for our country, too many of our veterans find themselves on the streets and in homeless shelters,” HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan said in a news release. “Thankfully, these vouchers will provide a more permanent solution to housing and services these veterans need.”

The housing program funding is part of a greater, $75 million commitment to helping homeless veterans nationwide. VA Medical Centers already work with veterans to provide support and case management. Case managers there will work with local housing agencies to find veterans who might be eligible for the housing benefits.

Veterans who utilize the program live in private housing and typically spend no more than 30 percent of their income on rent. To learn more about local opportunities, HUD provides individual state information for your use. “The Departments of Veterans Affairs (VA) and HUD are making a critical, long-term investment toward ending homelessness among veterans,” VA Secretary Eric K. Shinseki said in a news release. “We owe every man and woman who has worn our nation's military uniforms a level of courage and determination that matches theirs as we work to end veteran homelessness.”

Who could have said it better than this Mermaid who washed ashore at today's annual Coney Island Mermaid Parade. Those of us who enjoyed a day at the beach, were appropriately reminded about BP's oil spill in the Gulf, as Brooklyn's homegrown annual celebration of summertime, took on an oily layer of protest by many of the Mermaid and sea life costumed marchers.

The big news is that so far this year, sales volume could be as much as 70% higher than last year by current estimates. I've been personally involved in a couple of bidding wars in recent weeks. Correctly priced and marketed properties are meeting buyers, who are acting now without hesitation. Renewed confidence in the market, and a rapid absorption of the outstanding inventory of apartments, has leveled the market off, and many neighborhoods have started to recover off their lows. In my office, we had 20% of deals that went to contract last month, at or above asking prices. Incredible! I'll be posting more analysis soon, but for an overview of the first quarter of 2010, please download the latest Corcoran Report. I'd be glad to discuss any findings and how they might affect the value of your home.

download the latest Manhattan market report (1.4 mb) »

A caveat is required to prevent misunderstanding. I'm looking at a very broad and general trend, to get a sense here of where the Manhattan real estate market is headed in 2010. It is a bit like looking at the Dow or NASDAQ, each individual stock does not necessarily move in tandem. Every real estate deal is different too. It does not mean that you should look for a 5% to 7% discount off an asking price. It could easily be more or less. The averages have little bearing on what I might recommend to a customer bidding on a particular unit. That requires both research, and good instinct, built on a working knowledge of the market. It tends to be when an agent earns their keep.

» Inventory and negotiability (138 kb .pdf)
» January 2010 snapshot (156 kb .pdf)

» download the complete report as a pdf (156 kb) Here is a snapshot of the Manhattan real estate marketplace as 2009 begins, based on Corcoran's "in contract" sales data. We report that, "Marketwide sales activity slowed in January compared to December 2009. However, condominium sales are up 110% and co-op sales are up 118% versus January 2009. As is typical at this time of year, listed available inventory increased slightly this month as sellers relist their apartments in hopes of striking a deal after the holiday season. Available inventory is still far below levels seen a year ago. In January, the pricing disparity between buyers and sellers continued to close. The discounts this month were among the mildest in over a year. Buyers are typically able to obtain larger discounts for more expensive properties."

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» download the complete January snapshot as a pdf (156 kb)
» download the fourth quarter 2009 manhattan market report

Months of speculation, controversy, and debate ended last Friday as the District 2 Community Education Council voted 6-4 for "Option 2" as the temporary public school zoning for lower Mahhattan including: Tribeca, Battery Park City, The Financial District and Seaport area. Downtown Express reported that, "all Tribeca children west of Church St. will be zoned for P.S. 234. Children in east Tribeca and the Seaport will attend the Spruce Street School; the Financial District south of Liberty St. and Battery Park City south of Albany St. will attend P.S./I.S. 276; and north Battery Park City and Gateway Plaza will attend P.S. 89." The Tribeca Trib is running the map shown here as well as great coverage on the issues too. The plan redistributes and creates new school districts for PS 234, PS 89, PS 397 & PS 276. Unzoned PS 150 also serves the general community. Here's what the local media had to say:

The Tribeca Trib: Panel Chooses Zoning 'Option 2' for Downtown Schools

Broadsheet Daily: CB1's School Zoning Task Force endorses Option Two

I heard a story about a coop Board turn down last week, when I went out with a customer to look at some Greenwich Village apartments. We dropped by to see a "Gold Coast" property off Fifth Avenue near Washington Square Park, which had just come back on the market. It was a lovely place, in a converted townhouse, with just five units in the building. As we were about to leave, I asked the listing agent why the apartment had come back on the market. It could be for any number of reasons like the buyer exercising a mortgage contingency, or an inspection problem — both of which seemed unlikely by the condition of the building, and the fact that the co-op required a 50% down-payment, which most banks would see as a low risk, loan to value ratio on lending. It turns out that the prospective buyers were the parents of the person whom would be the occupant/tenant of the apartment. The Board's due diligence process included online research of the tenant. It revealed a 'Facebook' page for the potential occupant which included pictures that raised an eyebrow with some the Board members. While I'm not privy to knowing exactly what the problem was, it seems reasonable that some owners became worried about loud parties and late night noise. It projected a questionable image, and the Coop Board turned down the application.

Fair? Its hard to say. Sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words. Sometimes pictures lie. But the secret to passing a Board's scrutiny is to appear completely uncontroversial. It's a simple lesson, in today's wired world of social networks, potential buyers and their agents, need to review the online presence of the applicants, and edit where needed. As an agent, I go through a very exacting process in preparing financial data and references for Board packages; guiding customers through the coop approval process. That can all be undone today by a few badly considered photos from a New Years party.

click to download report

Has the Manhattan residential real estate market found its footing again? Prices have generally dropped about 15% from the fourth quarter of 2008 when the financial crisis began to apply downward pressure. The uncertainty of the economy in the first half of 2009, has lead to a release of pent up demand in the second half. In December of 2009 signed contracts for condos were up 48%, and co-ops up 157%.

Supply is shrinking and buyer activity, catalyzed by lower prices, is picking up. In Q4 2009 the story was about the available inventory of apartments. It was actually absorbed by 36%, and stands at about the same level as in 2007, at the height of the market (see chart below). That to me is the most striking metric. It is exactly the opposite of what was happening just before the market began to slide, as inventory built, and demand halted due to the financial crisis. Corcoran's entire Manhattan market report is available for download here. It has in-depth metrics on sales activity in the fourth quarter of 2009 and compares them to a year earlier.

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What it means if your a buyer is that the time is now, if you've been sitting on the sidelines. Interest rates are still fairly low for the moment and there are special tax credits available for some buyers. If you are a seller it means that there is a marketplace again for your property, if it is priced well and marketed properly.

When price appreciation will begin is anybody's guess. My opinion is that we've hit a point of price equilibrium now. It is a delicate balance which may be the beginning of a recovery; but it will be difficult for prices to rise significantly without greater employment and a more robust overall economy. I think we will see a market which has some stability, but little if any appreciation in the near term. If you are waiting for market prices to get back up to their peak to sell your home, you will be likely measuring that distance in years.

where are the opportunities?

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For first time buyers, it's a no brainer to buy now while prices are on a dip, mortgage rates low, and tax incentives are out there. If you are looking to sell and buy simultaneously, you're going to find both challenges and real opportunities in this market. It's no surprise to find that one bedroom buyers moving from rental to ownership comprised the biggest segment of buyers in the chart above. People also traded up to larger units, taking advantage of the dip in the market. Downtown Manhattan had stronger demand, on a relative basis, than other parts of the city. Your personal real estate strategy always requires looking at what and when you may have purchased, and what and where you are looking to buy. I help clients navigate those decisions every day. As always, please let me know if you have questions about the Q4 2009 market report.

» download the fourth quarter 2009 manhattan market report

I was surprised to find out that my Christmas postcard from 2004 was being auctioned on ebay, by an outfit named Sensual World, "Purveyors of sensual items from around the world". While I fail to see how exactly I fit in there, I'm somewhat flattered nonetheless. These were both mailed out and distributed on postcard ad racks around downtown Manhattan that year. It was free then, but can be yours today for about three bucks. I've always focused on developing a brand and bringing attention to my practice, and my clients listings, through design. While this is a truly minor recognition of my design work, it gave me a great excuse to recycle this image, and take a moment to wish you all a very happy holiday season!